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Carlos Nobre

person · earth · Brazil

The Brazilian earth system scientist most closely associated with the Amazon tipping point argument, and a co-author of both the 2016 assessment that proposed a forty per cent boundary and the 2018 paper that revised it down to twenty to twenty-five. He is worth naming in a Journey about a threshold because his own published position moved substantially in two years, in public, in response to evidence about fire and climate interacting with clearance. That is the correct behaviour for a scientist and it is also the reason the threshold figure should not be quoted as a constant: the number most often attributed to him is the one he replaced. He has also argued consistently that the Amazon requires an economic alternative rather than only a prohibition, which is a different kind of claim and rests on different evidence.

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Evidence · 2
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Connections · 1
Assembled narrative · 1

Assembled from 18 blocks · 2 evidence · 22 related

  1. Story
  2. The Brazilian earth system scientist most closely associated with the Amazon tipping point argument, and a co-author of both the 2016 assessment that proposed a forty per cent boundary and the 2018 paper that revised it down to twenty to twenty-five. He is worth naming in a Journey about a threshold because his own published position moved substantially in two years, in public, in response to evidence about fire and climate interacting with clearance. That is the correct behaviour for a scientist and it is also the reason the threshold figure should not be quoted as a constant: the number most often attributed to him is the one he replaced. He has also argued consistently that the Amazon requires an economic alternative rather than only a prohibition, which is a different kind of claim and rests on different evidence.
  3. Knowledge
  4. The Amazon Dieback Threshold
  5. Carlos Nobre
  6. Connections
  7. The Amazon Dieback Threshold
  8. The tipping point estimate is revised sharply downward
  9. Amazon Deforestation
  10. Moisture Recycling
  11. Carlos Nobre
  12. The tipping point estimate is revised sharply downward
  13. The threshold question is reframed as compounding disturbance
  14. Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system
  15. Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s
  16. Evidence
  17. Supports the earlier, higher tipping-point boundary for Amazon dieback combining deforestation extent with warming. V55 verification basis: not retrieved in this session; the specific percentage attributed to this paper must be confirmed by a curator, since the disagreement between successive estimates is the substance of the record that cites it.
  18. Supports the revised, substantially lower deforestation threshold for Amazon dieback and the argument that fire, clearance and climate change interact rather than add. V55 verification basis: the article DOI page was probed in this session and returned EGRESS_BLOCKED; neither the article nor any summary of it was retrieved, and the quoted percentage range is stated from the producing model's knowledge.
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Observed changes · 0

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