Sub-Saharan African urban growth
node · earth · Sub-Saharan Africa
The region where the largest share of this century's additional urban population is projected to arrive, and where the physical and fiscal capacity to receive it is thinnest. Three of the seven countries expected to add most of the world's new city dwellers to 2050 — Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Ethiopia — are here. The distinguishing feature is not the growth rate, which parts of Asia matched in the twentieth century, but the sequence: in the historic European and East Asian cases, industrial employment and municipal revenue arrived roughly together with the people, whereas across much of this region urban population growth has run ahead of both formal employment and municipal fiscal capacity. UN-Habitat reports that about 62 per cent of urban dwellings in Africa are informal. Tenure documentation is thinner still: SDG indicator 1.4.2 reporting gives roughly 15 per cent of adults in sub-Saharan Africa holding legally recognised documentation of their land rights. Those two figures, taken together, describe cities being built by their residents faster than any authority is recording, servicing or taxing them.
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Evidence · 3
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Assembled from 22 blocks · 3 evidence · 22 related
- Story
- The region where the largest share of this century's additional urban population is projected to arrive, and where the physical and fiscal capacity to receive it is thinnest. Three of the seven countries expected to add most of the world's new city dwellers to 2050 — Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Ethiopia — are here. The distinguishing feature is not the growth rate, which parts of Asia matched in the twentieth century, but the sequence: in the historic European and East Asian cases, industrial employment and municipal revenue arrived roughly together with the people, whereas across much of this region urban population growth has run ahead of both formal employment and municipal fiscal capacity. UN-Habitat reports that about 62 per cent of urban dwellings in Africa are informal. Tenure documentation is thinner still: SDG indicator 1.4.2 reporting gives roughly 15 per cent of adults in sub-Saharan Africa holding legally recognised documentation of their land rights. Those two figures, taken together, describe cities being built by their residents faster than any authority is recording, servicing or taxing them.
- Knowledge
- Twenty-first-century urbanisation
- Sub-Saharan African urban growth
- Connections
- Twenty-first-century urbanisation
- Lagos
- Where the next billion city dwellers are projected to be
- Degree of Urbanisation
- Sub-Saharan African urban growth
- Agglomeration
- Urban cooling demand
- The world is reported to become majority urban
- Nigeria's census is postponed again
- The JMP reports flat urban water coverage
- World Urbanization Prospects 2025 changes the measurement
- Where the next billion city dwellers are projected to be
- Evidence
- Establishes the 2025 settlement shares (45 per cent cities, 36 per cent towns, 19 per cent rural), the count of 33 megacities, the projection of about 982 million additional city dwellers by 2050 concentrated in seven countries, and the first full integration of the Degree of Urbanisation. V55 verification basis: the UN's own release page carried the headline population-share and megacity claims and attributed them to this report; WebFetch is blocked in this environment, so the Summary of Results volume itself was not opened and the finer figures rest on the release and its summaries.
- Supports the estimate of more than 1.1 billion people in slums and informal settlements within 1.6 billion in inadequate housing, and the figure of about 62 per cent of African urban dwellings being informal. V55 verification basis: retrieved from UN-Habitat and UN News summaries rather than from the report itself, which could not be opened; the definitional basis of the slum estimate was not inspected.
- Supports the tenure figures: about 66 per cent of adults perceiving secure land rights against about 43 per cent holding legally recognised documentation, and roughly 15 per cent documented in sub-Saharan Africa, on data from 85 countries around a 2022 reference period. V55 verification basis: retrieved from SDG reporting summaries; the indicator database and country tables were not opened.
Observed changes · 0
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