Payroll data shows a relative decline in entry-level employment in AI-exposed occupations
Brynjolfsson, Chandar and Chen, using administrative data from the largest United States payroll processor, reported that workers aged 22–25 in the most AI-exposed occupations had experienced a relative employment decline — 13% in the first circulated version and 16% in a later one — after controlling for firm-level shocks, while employment for older workers in the same occupations and for workers in less exposed occupations held steady or grew. It is the single most-cited piece of evidence that generative AI is displacing labour, and it is an association measured at one entry point in one country's payroll panel.
Observed — measured or witnessed, with the observation cited.
Subjects
- Labour-market effects of machine learning · phenomenon · not located
- Machine-generated code · technology · not located
Evidence
Partly verified — Core facts are sourced; some optional detail is deliberately absent.
Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence
Using high-frequency administrative payroll data from the largest United States payroll software provider, workers aged 22–25 in the most AI-exposed occupations show a relative employment decline — reported as 13% in the circulated version and 16% in a later version — since the widespread adoption of generative AI, after controlling for firm-level shocks, while employment for more experienced workers in the same occupations and for workers in less exposed occupations remained stable or grew. V55 verification basis: no version of the paper was fetched. The 13% and 16% figures, the age band, the data source and the controlling strategy were carried in search results attributing them to the Stanford Digital Economy Lab paper; the divergence between the two figures reflects successive versions and is stated here rather than resolved, because the later version was not retrieved.
Stanford Digital Economy Lab / SIEPR, Stanford University · 2025 · Partly verified
Brynjolfsson, E., Chandar, B. and Chen, R., Stanford Digital Economy Lab working paper, https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/publication/canaries-in-the-coal-mine-six-facts-about-the-recent-employment-effects-of-artificial-intelligence/ ; SIEPR working paper record; Canaries Dashboard
Recorded on Labour-market effects of machine learning
- Payroll data shows a relative decline in entry-level employment in AI-exposed occupations
- A whole-labour-market analysis finds no economy-wide disruption yet
- A randomised trial finds experienced developers slower with AI assistance
- The second International AI Safety Report reports mixed labour findings
- The AI Index records both fast benchmark movement and doubts about benchmarks
Related
Related because they share a subject in the Atlas — never because the text looks similar.
- The second International AI Safety Report reports mixed labour findings · 2026-02
- The AI Index records both fast benchmark movement and doubts about benchmarks · 2026
- A randomised trial finds experienced developers slower with AI assistance · 2025-07-10
- A whole-labour-market analysis finds no economy-wide disruption yet · 2025-10