A statistical early-warning analysis puts an AMOC collapse mid-century

Assembled from 32 blocks · 2 evidence · 30 related

1. Story
2. Ditlevsen and Ditlevsen, in Nature Communications, applied early-warning statistics to a sea-surface-temperature-based reconstruction of AMOC strength and reported a central estimate for tipping of 2057 with a 95 per cent range of 2025 to 2095. The paper was widely reported and is also widely contested: the method assumes the reconstruction is a faithful proxy for overturning strength, early-warning indicators are prone to false positives, and the direct RAPID trend at 26.5°N is not consistent with a mid-century collapse.
3. Knowledge
4. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
5. RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS Array at 26.5°N
6. A statistical early-warning analysis puts an AMOC collapse mid-century
7. Connections
8. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
9. RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS Array at 26.5°N
10. Twenty-two years of continuous AMOC observation
11. Gulf Stream
12. Thermohaline Circulation
13. Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC)
14. North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW)
15. RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS Array at 26.5°N
16. Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP)
17. Meridional Ocean Heat Transport
18. The RAPID array begins continuous AMOC measurement at 26.5°N
19. OSNAP moves the engine room out of the Labrador Sea
20. IPCC AR6 assesses AMOC decline as very likely and collapse as unlikely this century
21. A statistical early-warning analysis puts an AMOC collapse mid-century
22. A physics-based early warning signal is proposed
23. Twenty-two years of continuous AMOC observation
24. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
25. Gulf Stream
26. Sverdrup (Sv)
27. The RAPID array begins continuous AMOC measurement at 26.5°N
28. A statistical early-warning analysis puts an AMOC collapse mid-century
29. Twenty-two years of continuous AMOC observation
30. Evidence
31. Early-warning statistics applied to a sea-surface-temperature-based AMOC reconstruction give a central tipping estimate of 2057 with a 95 per cent range of 2025–2095. Figures read via search summary and via commentary including a published critique noting that the reconstruction introduces large uncertainty; the paper was not fetched.
32. The RAPID array at 26.5°N gives a mean AMOC of 17.0 Sv (s.d. 2.8 Sv) for April 2004 to January 2023 and a weakening of 1.0 [0.4–1.6] Sv per decade; the trend is not expected to exceed a signal-to-noise ratio of 2 until the 2040s. Read via search summary; the paper itself could not be fetched because the publisher domain is blocked to this run.