A statistical early-warning analysis puts an AMOC collapse mid-century

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Ditlevsen and Ditlevsen, in Nature Communications, applied early-warning statistics to a sea-surface-temperature-based reconstruction of AMOC strength and reported a central estimate for tipping of 2057 with a 95 per cent range of 2025 to 2095. The paper was widely reported and is also widely contested: the method assumes the reconstruction is a faithful proxy for overturning strength, early-warning indicators are prone to false positives, and the direct RAPID trend at 26.5°N is not consistent with a mid-century collapse.

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Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)concerns
RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS Array at 26.5°Nconcerns

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