IPCC AR6 assesses AMOC decline as very likely and collapse as unlikely this century

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1. Story
2. Working Group I's chapter on ocean, cryosphere and sea level change assessed that the AMOC will very likely decline over the twenty-first century under all emissions scenarios, with medium confidence that the decline will not involve an abrupt collapse before 2100. The two halves of that sentence are frequently reported separately, and the qualifier "medium confidence" is doing a great deal of work: it reflects known model limitations rather than a settled probability.
3. Knowledge
4. Thermohaline Circulation
5. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
6. IPCC AR6 assesses AMOC decline as very likely and collapse as unlikely this century
7. Connections
8. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
9. Thermohaline Circulation
10. Gulf Stream
11. Thermohaline Circulation
12. Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC)
13. North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW)
14. RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS Array at 26.5°N
15. Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP)
16. Meridional Ocean Heat Transport
17. The RAPID array begins continuous AMOC measurement at 26.5°N
18. OSNAP moves the engine room out of the Labrador Sea
19. IPCC AR6 assesses AMOC decline as very likely and collapse as unlikely this century
20. A statistical early-warning analysis puts an AMOC collapse mid-century
21. A physics-based early warning signal is proposed
22. Twenty-two years of continuous AMOC observation
23. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
24. Coastal and Equatorial Upwelling
25. Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW)
26. Southern Ocean
27. Argo Profiling Float Array
28. Wallace Broecker
29. The great ocean conveyor is drawn
30. The Argo design array is completed
31. IPCC AR6 assesses AMOC decline as very likely and collapse as unlikely this century
32. Evidence
33. The AMOC will very likely decline over the twenty-first century under all SSP scenarios, with medium confidence that the decline will not involve an abrupt collapse before 2100. The assessment language is quoted from secondary reporting of the chapter; the chapter itself was not fetched.