IPCC AR6 assesses AMOC decline as very likely and collapse as unlikely this century

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Working Group I's chapter on ocean, cryosphere and sea level change assessed that the AMOC will very likely decline over the twenty-first century under all emissions scenarios, with medium confidence that the decline will not involve an abrupt collapse before 2100. The two halves of that sentence are frequently reported separately, and the qualifier "medium confidence" is doing a great deal of work: it reflects known model limitations rather than a settled probability.

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