A physics-based early warning signal is proposed

Assembled from 49 blocks · 1 evidence · 87 related

1. Story
2. Van Westen, Kliphuis and Dijkstra published in Science Advances a physics-based indicator — the freshwater transport by the overturning at the southern boundary of the Atlantic — which in a long climate-model simulation turns negative well before a collapse. Applied to observational reanalyses, the indicator suggests the present-day AMOC is on a trajectory towards tipping. Subsequent work by the same group has continued to refine indicators and to identify where an observing system would best detect the onset.
3. Knowledge
4. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
5. Southern Ocean
6. A physics-based early warning signal is proposed
7. Connections
8. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
9. Southern Ocean
10. Gulf Stream
11. Thermohaline Circulation
12. Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC)
13. North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW)
14. RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS Array at 26.5°N
15. Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP)
16. Meridional Ocean Heat Transport
17. The RAPID array begins continuous AMOC measurement at 26.5°N
18. OSNAP moves the engine room out of the Labrador Sea
19. IPCC AR6 assesses AMOC decline as very likely and collapse as unlikely this century
20. A statistical early-warning analysis puts an AMOC collapse mid-century
21. A physics-based early warning signal is proposed
22. Twenty-two years of continuous AMOC observation
23. Antarctic Blue Whale (B. m. intermedia)
24. Antarctic Summer Feeding Migration
25. South Georgia
26. Southern Ocean Whale Sanctuary
27. Seasonal Krill Aggregation
28. The factory ship Lancing takes a stern slipway south
29. The Antarctic blue whale catch reaches its all-time peak
30. The Southern Ocean Whale Sanctuary is adopted
31. Dedicated Antarctic Blue Whale Project voyages
32. Baleen whale consumption is re-measured, and the krill paradox sharpens
33. The only published Antarctic blue whale satellite tracks are released as data
34. Antarctic Krill (Euphausia superba)
35. Arctic Tern (Sterna paradisaea)
36. CCAMLR is agreed at Canberra
37. A long-term decline in krill density is linked to winter sea ice
38. CCAMLR adopts the Ross Sea marine protected area
39. Antarctic sea ice reaches a record low, a year after the previous one
40. Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC)
41. Antarctica
42. Thermohaline Circulation
43. North Atlantic — Grand Banks approaches
44. Weddell Sea
45. A circumpolar current becomes possible
46. Antarctic meltwater is projected to slow the abyssal cell
47. A physics-based early warning signal is proposed
48. Evidence
49. A physics-based indicator based on freshwater transport by the overturning at the Atlantic's southern boundary suggests the present-day AMOC is on a trajectory towards tipping. Read via search summary and via subsequent papers by the same group on indicator onset and optimal observation locations; not fetched.