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A physics-based early warning signal is proposed

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Van Westen, Kliphuis and Dijkstra published in Science Advances a physics-based indicator — the freshwater transport by the overturning at the southern boundary of the Atlantic — which in a long climate-model simulation turns negative well before a collapse. Applied to observational reanalyses, the indicator suggests the present-day AMOC is on a trajectory towards tipping. Subsequent work by the same group has continued to refine indicators and to identify where an observing system would best detect the onset.

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