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International Energy Agency

node · earth

An autonomous intergovernmental body established in Paris in 1974 under the framework of the OECD, in direct response to the 1973 oil embargo, with an original mandate to coordinate emergency oil stocks among consuming countries. It became, over half a century, the closest thing the world has to an official energy statistician, and its World Energy Outlook is the reference document of the field. Its position in this Journey is double-edged and both edges belong in the record. The IEA assembles the energy balances and technology cost data on which almost every serious transition analysis depends, including much of this Journey. It is also the institution whose successive Outlooks projected essentially flat solar deployment year after year while actual deployment grew exponentially — a failure documented at length by outside analysts and now partly acknowledged, arising from a methodology that projected policy-as-legislated rather than cost-as-falling. The agency subsequently restructured its scenarios, added a Net Zero Emissions by 2050 pathway in 2021 and revised its solar treatment substantially. The lesson is not that the IEA is unreliable; it is that a forecast built on the wrong model of cost formation fails in a specific and predictable direction, and that this is exactly what the learning curve predicts about it. Its Paris headquarters is not a subject of this Journey and no coordinate is asserted here.

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Connections · 3
Assembled narrative · 1

Assembled from 41 blocks · 2 evidence · 30 related

  1. Story
  2. An autonomous intergovernmental body established in Paris in 1974 under the framework of the OECD, in direct response to the 1973 oil embargo, with an original mandate to coordinate emergency oil stocks among consuming countries. It became, over half a century, the closest thing the world has to an official energy statistician, and its World Energy Outlook is the reference document of the field. Its position in this Journey is double-edged and both edges belong in the record. The IEA assembles the energy balances and technology cost data on which almost every serious transition analysis depends, including much of this Journey. It is also the institution whose successive Outlooks projected essentially flat solar deployment year after year while actual deployment grew exponentially — a failure documented at length by outside analysts and now partly acknowledged, arising from a methodology that projected policy-as-legislated rather than cost-as-falling. The agency subsequently restructured its scenarios, added a Net Zero Emissions by 2050 pathway in 2021 and revised its solar treatment substantially. The lesson is not that the IEA is unreliable; it is that a forecast built on the wrong model of cost formation fails in a specific and predictable direction, and that this is exactly what the learning curve predicts about it. Its Paris headquarters is not a subject of this Journey and no coordinate is asserted here.
  3. Knowledge
  4. The experience (learning) curve
  5. Critical minerals for the energy transition
  6. International Energy Agency
  7. Data-centre electricity demand
  8. Connections
  9. The experience (learning) curve
  10. Critical minerals for the energy transition
  11. Data-centre electricity demand
  12. The IEA publishes its first global analysis of energy and AI
  13. The IEA reports data-centre electricity demand up about 17% in 2025
  14. Theodore Paul Wright
  15. Photovoltaic solar generation
  16. The horizontal-axis wind turbine
  17. Lithium-ion battery storage
  18. Nuclear fission power
  19. International Energy Agency
  20. Wright publishes the airframe cost-quantity relationship
  21. The conventional start of the photovoltaic module price series
  22. Germany's Renewable Energy Sources Act takes effect
  23. Chinese manufacturing takes over the photovoltaic supply chain
  24. The photovoltaic learning curve is popularised as Swanson's law
  25. Vogtle Unit 4 enters commercial operation
  26. Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition
  27. The horizontal-axis wind turbine
  28. Lithium-ion battery storage
  29. Bayan Obo mining district
  30. Copper
  31. International Energy Agency
  32. The lithium price collapses after its 2022 peak
  33. China imposes export controls on rare earths and magnets
  34. International Energy Agency
  35. Growth in frontier training compute
  36. Northern Virginia data-centre corridor
  37. The IEA publishes its first global analysis of energy and AI
  38. The IEA reports data-centre electricity demand up about 17% in 2025
  39. Evidence
  40. The reference source for world energy balances, final energy consumption by carrier, generation mix, technology cost trends and scenario pathways used throughout this pack. V55 verification basis: no edition was retrieved in this session — iea.org was refused by the network egress proxy — so every figure attributed to this series is stated as a magnitude with the specific gap named on the citing record, and no current-year quantity should be presented to a reader without confirmation against a named edition.
  41. Supports statements about recent annual global energy demand growth, electricity demand growth outpacing total energy demand, and the continued absolute growth of fossil fuel consumption alongside record renewable additions. V55 verification basis: not retrieved in this session; the direction of each statement is stated from author knowledge of the series and no numeric total is quoted from it.
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