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Payroll data shows a relative decline in entry-level employment in AI-exposed occupations

2025 · Recorded · science

The source states this happened, and its date is not in the future. The word the source used for it is observed.

Brynjolfsson, Chandar and Chen, using administrative data from the largest United States payroll processor, reported that workers aged 22–25 in the most AI-exposed occupations had experienced a relative employment decline — 13% in the first circulated version and 16% in a later one — after controlling for firm-level shocks, while employment for older workers in the same occupations and for workers in less exposed occupations held steady or grew. It is the single most-cited piece of evidence that generative AI is displacing labour, and it is an association measured at one entry point in one country's payroll panel.

Source

Stanford Digital Economy Lab / SIEPR, Stanford University · Brynjolfsson, E., Chandar, B. and Chen, R., Stanford Digital Economy Lab working paper, https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/publication/canaries-in-the-coal-mine-six-facts-about-the-recent-employment-effects-of-artificial-intelligence/ ; SIEPR working paper record; Canaries Dashboard

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Subject

SCENARIO_LABOUR_EFFECTS · DOMAIN_CODE_GENERATION