The simple macroeconomics of AI

evidence

Applying a task-based model and a version of Hulten's theorem to existing estimates of AI task exposure and task-level cost savings, the macroeconomic effects appear non-trivial but modest: no more than a 0.66% increase in total factor productivity over ten years, with the author arguing that even this is likely exaggerated and predicting gains below 0.53%. V55 verification basis: the article was not fetched, but search results carried the journal, volume 40, issue 121, pages 13–58, the January 2025 publication and both the 0.66% and 0.53% figures and attributed them to this paper.

A evidence is not a place. Drawing it on a map would assert something about the world that no stored fact supports.