Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence

evidence

Using high-frequency administrative payroll data from the largest United States payroll software provider, workers aged 22–25 in the most AI-exposed occupations show a relative employment decline — reported as 13% in the circulated version and 16% in a later version — since the widespread adoption of generative AI, after controlling for firm-level shocks, while employment for more experienced workers in the same occupations and for workers in less exposed occupations remained stable or grew. V55 verification basis: no version of the paper was fetched. The 13% and 16% figures, the age band, the data source and the controlling strategy were carried in search results attributing them to the Stanford Digital Economy Lab paper; the divergence between the two figures reflects successive versions and is stated here rather than resolved, because the later version was not retrieved.

A evidence is not a place. Drawing it on a map would assert something about the world that no stored fact supports.