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A whole-labour-market analysis finds no economy-wide disruption yet

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The Budget Lab at Yale compared how fast the occupational and industry mix of United States employment changed in the 33 months after ChatGPT's release against equivalent windows during the spread of computers and of the internet, and found the pace within historical range and no relationship between measures of AI exposure, automation or augmentation and changes in employment or unemployment. The authors were explicit that this does not rule out later effects: historical technological disruptions of employment have played out over decades, and 33 months is a short window in which to expect one.

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