A published projection that reefs would bleach faster than they could recover
A review in Marine and Freshwater Research argued that, on the warming trajectories then projected, the interval between bleaching events on most reefs would fall below the time corals need to recover, so that the constraint on reefs was not the severity of any single event but the frequency of events. It was widely contested when published. The subsequent record of the 2010s is generally read as having borne out its central claim about frequency.
Historical — it happened, and the record is settled.
Subjects
- Coral bleaching · ecological phenomenon · Global tropical reefs · not located
- Reef-building corals (Scleractinia) · species_group · Tropical and subtropical shallow seas, broadly 30 degrees N to 30 degrees S · not located
Evidence
Partly verified — Core facts are sourced; some optional detail is deliberately absent.
Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world's coral reefs
On projected warming, the interval between bleaching events would fall below the interval corals need to recover, making event frequency rather than event severity the binding constraint on reefs. V55 verification basis: not consulted in this session; identified and summarised from the producing model's knowledge of the paper and its subsequent reception.
Marine and Freshwater Research (CSIRO Publishing), Hoegh-Guldberg · 1999 · Partly verified
Hoegh-Guldberg, O. (1999), Marine and Freshwater Research vol. 50 — the projection that bleaching frequency would outpace reef recovery.
Recorded on Coral bleaching
- Darwin publishes The Structure and Distribution of Coral Reefs
- The first global mass bleaching event
- A published projection that reefs would bleach faster than they could recover
- The third global bleaching event
- Mass bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef
- A second consecutive year of mass bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef
- The interval between severe bleaching events is measured, and it has collapsed
- The fourth global bleaching event is confirmed
Related
Related because they share a subject in the Atlas — never because the text looks similar.
- The fourth global bleaching event is confirmed · 2024-04
- The interval between severe bleaching events is measured, and it has collapsed · 2018-01
- A second consecutive year of mass bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef · 2017
- Mass bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef · 2016-03 to 2016-04
- The third global bleaching event · 2014–2017
- The first global mass bleaching event · 1998
- Darwin publishes The Structure and Distribution of Coral Reefs · 1842