Kessler and Cour-Palais publish the collision cascade argument
Two NASA researchers set out, in the Journal of Geophysical Research, the statistical case that collisions between artificial satellites would themselves become the dominant source of new debris, producing a belt of fragments around the Earth. The paper was written when the catalogued population was a small fraction of its present size and no accidental collision between two intact satellites had ever occurred; its argument was entirely prospective, and it took thirty-one years for the collision it described to happen.
Historical — it happened, and the record is settled.
Subjects
- The Kessler collision cascade · model · not located
- Orbital debris · phenomenon · not located
Evidence
Partly verified — Core facts are sourced; some optional detail is deliberately absent.
Collision Frequency of Artificial Satellites: The Creation of a Debris Belt
Sets out the collision-cascade mechanism by which a debris population becomes self-sustaining above a threshold density. V55 verification basis: the paper was not retrieved in this session; the issue and page range are deliberately omitted rather than stated from memory, and only the volume and year are given.
Journal of Geophysical Research · 1978 · Partly verified
D. J. Kessler and B. G. Cour-Palais, Journal of Geophysical Research, volume 83, 1978
Recorded on The Kessler collision cascade
- Kessler and Cour-Palais publish the collision cascade argument
- The UN adopts voluntary space debris mitigation guidelines
- A Chinese anti-satellite test destroys the Fengyun-1C weather satellite
- Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 collide
- The first sixty Starlink satellites are deployed
- A Russian anti-satellite test destroys Cosmos 1408
- The FCC adopts a five-year post-mission disposal rule
Related
Related because they share a subject in the Atlas — never because the text looks similar.
- The FCC adopts a five-year post-mission disposal rule · 2022-09-29
- A Russian anti-satellite test destroys Cosmos 1408 · 2021-11-15
- The first sixty Starlink satellites are deployed · 2019-05-24
- Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 collide · 2009-02-10
- A Chinese anti-satellite test destroys the Fengyun-1C weather satellite · 2007-01-11
- The UN adopts voluntary space debris mitigation guidelines · 2007