Payroll data shows a relative decline in entry-level employment in AI-exposed occupations

Assembled from 26 blocks · 1 evidence · 15 related

1. Story
2. Brynjolfsson, Chandar and Chen, using administrative data from the largest United States payroll processor, reported that workers aged 22–25 in the most AI-exposed occupations had experienced a relative employment decline — 13% in the first circulated version and 16% in a later one — after controlling for firm-level shocks, while employment for older workers in the same occupations and for workers in less exposed occupations held steady or grew. It is the single most-cited piece of evidence that generative AI is displacing labour, and it is an association measured at one entry point in one country's payroll panel.
3. Knowledge
4. Machine-generated code
5. Labour-market effects of machine learning
6. Payroll data shows a relative decline in entry-level employment in AI-exposed occupations
7. Connections
8. Labour-market effects of machine learning
9. Machine-generated code
10. Machine translation
11. Machine-generated code
12. Measured adoption of AI by firms
13. Payroll data shows a relative decline in entry-level employment in AI-exposed occupations
14. A whole-labour-market analysis finds no economy-wide disruption yet
15. The second International AI Safety Report reports mixed labour findings
16. Radiologist workforce projections and employment outlook, against the 2016 prediction
17. Labour-market effects of machine learning
18. The transformer architecture
19. METR
20. A randomised trial finds experienced developers slower with AI assistance
21. Payroll data shows a relative decline in entry-level employment in AI-exposed occupations
22. The second International AI Safety Report reports mixed labour findings
23. The AI Index records both fast benchmark movement and doubts about benchmarks
24. Introducing SWE-bench Verified
25. Evidence
26. Using high-frequency administrative payroll data from the largest United States payroll software provider, workers aged 22–25 in the most AI-exposed occupations show a relative employment decline — reported as 13% in the circulated version and 16% in a later version — since the widespread adoption of generative AI, after controlling for firm-level shocks, while employment for more experienced workers in the same occupations and for workers in less exposed occupations remained stable or grew. V55 verification basis: no version of the paper was fetched. The 13% and 16% figures, the age band, the data source and the controlling strategy were carried in search results attributing them to the Stanford Digital Economy Lab paper; the divergence between the two figures reflects successive versions and is stated here rather than resolved, because the later version was not retrieved.