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Payroll data shows a relative decline in entry-level employment in AI-exposed occupations

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Brynjolfsson, Chandar and Chen, using administrative data from the largest United States payroll processor, reported that workers aged 22–25 in the most AI-exposed occupations had experienced a relative employment decline — 13% in the first circulated version and 16% in a later one — after controlling for firm-level shocks, while employment for older workers in the same occupations and for workers in less exposed occupations held steady or grew. It is the single most-cited piece of evidence that generative AI is displacing labour, and it is an association measured at one entry point in one country's payroll panel.

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