Twenty-two years of continuous AMOC observation
Across the record from April 2004 to January 2023 the RAPID array gives a mean overturning maximum of 17.0 Sv with a standard deviation of 2.8 Sv and a weakening of 1.0 [0.4–1.6] Sv per decade. Analysis of signal against noise in the same record suggests the observed trend will not become clearly distinguishable from natural variability until the 2040s on one threshold and the 2060s on a stricter one. A separate analysis of the same period reports a steeper decline of 2.6 ± 0.7 Sv per decade, which is a reminder that the number depends on the method as well as on the ocean.
Observed — measured or witnessed, with the observation cited.
Subjects
- Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) · natural phenomenon · Atlantic Ocean · not located
- RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS Array at 26.5°N · research programme · Subtropical North Atlantic — 26.5°N section · not located
- Sverdrup (Sv) · physical quantity · not located
Evidence
Partly verified — Core facts are sourced; some optional detail is deliberately absent.
Signal and Noise in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26°N
The RAPID array at 26.5°N gives a mean AMOC of 17.0 Sv (s.d. 2.8 Sv) for April 2004 to January 2023 and a weakening of 1.0 [0.4–1.6] Sv per decade; the trend is not expected to exceed a signal-to-noise ratio of 2 until the 2040s. Read via search summary; the paper itself could not be fetched because the publisher domain is blocked to this run.
Geophysical Research Letters (American Geophysical Union) · 2025 · Partly verified
McCarthy, G. D. et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 2025, doi:10.1029/2025GL115055 (open copy: nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/539195)
Recorded on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)
- The RAPID array begins continuous AMOC measurement at 26.5°N
- Twenty-two years of continuous AMOC observation
- Drake Passage is measured and the ACC turns out to be larger
- OSNAP moves the engine room out of the Labrador Sea
- IPCC AR6 assesses AMOC decline as very likely and collapse as unlikely this century
- A statistical early-warning analysis puts an AMOC collapse mid-century
- A physics-based early warning signal is proposed
Related
Related because they share a subject in the Atlas — never because the text looks similar.
- A physics-based early warning signal is proposed · 2024-02
- A statistical early-warning analysis puts an AMOC collapse mid-century · 2023-07
- IPCC AR6 assesses AMOC decline as very likely and collapse as unlikely this century · 2021
- OSNAP moves the engine room out of the Labrador Sea · 2019-02
- Drake Passage is measured and the ACC turns out to be larger · 2007–2011 (published 2016)
- The RAPID array begins continuous AMOC measurement at 26.5°N · 2004-04