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Recordedyearclimate

IPCC AR6 assesses AMOC decline as very likely and collapse as unlikely this century

Working Group I's chapter on ocean, cryosphere and sea level change assessed that the AMOC will very likely decline over the twenty-first century under all emissions scenarios, with medium confidence that the decline will not involve an abrupt collapse before 2100. The two halves of that sentence are frequently reported separately, and the qualifier "medium confidence" is doing a great deal of work: it reflects known model limitations rather than a settled probability.

Historical — it happened, and the record is settled.

Subjects

Evidence

Partly verified — Core facts are sourced; some optional detail is deliberately absent.

Recorded on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)

  1. The great ocean conveyor is drawn
  2. The RAPID array begins continuous AMOC measurement at 26.5°N
  3. Twenty-two years of continuous AMOC observation
  4. The Argo design array is completed
  5. OSNAP moves the engine room out of the Labrador Sea
  6. IPCC AR6 assesses AMOC decline as very likely and collapse as unlikely this century
  7. A statistical early-warning analysis puts an AMOC collapse mid-century
  8. A physics-based early warning signal is proposed

Related

Related because they share a subject in the Atlas — never because the text looks similar.