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Recordedyearscience

A Bayesian phylogeny dates Indo-European to the Anatolian Neolithic

Gray and Atkinson applied Bayesian phylogenetic inference with a relaxed molecular-clock model to Indo-European cognate data and obtained a root age of roughly eight to ten thousand years, consistent with the hypothesis that the family spread with the expansion of farming out of Anatolia rather than with steppe pastoralists in the fourth millennium BCE. The result put a quantitative method behind a hypothesis that comparative linguists had largely rejected, and opened a dispute that is still running. Critics objected to the cognate coding, the calibration priors and the treatment of borrowing.

Historical — it happened, and the record is settled.

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Evidence

Partly verified — Core facts are sourced; some optional detail is deliberately absent.

Recorded on Bayesian phylogenetic dating of language families

  1. Proto-Indo-European is spoken
  2. Saussure posits consonants no language attests
  3. Kuryłowicz matches Hittite h to Saussure's coefficients
  4. A language tree is tested against a settlement chronology
  5. A Bayesian phylogeny dates Indo-European to the Anatolian Neolithic
  6. Phylogeography puts the Indo-European homeland in Anatolia
  7. Ancient DNA finds a mass movement from the steppe into Europe
  8. A dated phylogeny puts Sino-Tibetan at roughly seven thousand years
  9. A second phylogeny puts the same family at roughly six thousand years
  10. A hybrid model is proposed for the Indo-European origin

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