What AI Changes

When these happened

31 dated records from 2007 to 2027. Each is drawn as wide as its date is certain — a band is a band because nobody knows the year, not because the drawing is imprecise.

31 shown · 31 dated · 0 cannot be placed on an axis · Approximate or contested. Draw a band and do not sharpen its edges.

In order31

2007–2009ImageNet is assembled and released
It happened, and the record is settled.
2012A deep convolutional network wins the ImageNet challenge
It happened, and the record is settled.
2016-03-09 to 2016-03-15AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in Seoul
It happened, and the record is settled.
2017-12-04 to 2017-12-09The transformer is presented at NeurIPS
It happened, and the record is settled.
2018–2019GLUE is saturated and SuperGLUE is built to replace it
It happened, and the record is settled.
2018A human-parity claim in translation fails under document-level evaluation
It happened, and the record is settled.
2020 (CASP14)AlphaFold2 is assessed blind at CASP14
It was measured or witnessed, with the observation cited.
2021-07AlphaFold2 is published and the database opens
It happened, and the record is settled.
2022-07-28The AlphaFold database expands to over 200 million structures
It happened, and the record is settled.
2023–2026 (trial reports)A randomised screening trial reports what AI-supported mammography actually changes
It was measured or witnessed, with the observation cited.
2023-01NIST publishes a voluntary AI risk management framework
It happened, and the record is settled.
2023-11GNoME is announced as 2.2 million new crystal structures
It happened, and the record is settled.
2023-12ISO/IEC 42001 establishes a certifiable AI management standard
It happened, and the record is settled.
2024-04Crystallographers dispute the discovery claim
It happened, and the record is settled.
2024-08-01The EU Artificial Intelligence Act enters into force
It happened, and the record is settled.
2024-10The Nobel Prize in Chemistry recognises protein structure prediction
It happened, and the record is settled.
2024-12GenCast is published with a like-for-like comparison against an operational ensemble
It happened, and the record is settled.
2025Payroll data shows a relative decline in entry-level employment in AI-exposed occupations
It was measured or witnessed, with the observation cited.
2025-02-25ECMWF makes a machine-learned forecast model operational
It happened, and the record is settled.
2025-04The IEA publishes its first global analysis of energy and AI
It happened, and the record is settled.
2025-04An audit finds the most-cited preference leaderboard is optimised rather than merely measured
It was measured or witnessed, with the observation cited.
2025-07-10A randomised trial finds experienced developers slower with AI assistance
It was measured or witnessed, with the observation cited.
2025-10A whole-labour-market analysis finds no economy-wide disruption yet
It was measured or witnessed, with the observation cited.
2025-11A systematic review of 445 benchmarks reports pervasive validity failures
It was measured or witnessed, with the observation cited.
2025-11-17The United States firm-adoption survey changes its question, and the number jumps
It happened, and the record is settled.
2025-11-19The Commission proposes deferring the high-risk obligations
It happened, and the record is settled.
2026The AI Index records both fast benchmark movement and doubts about benchmarks
It happened, and the record is settled.
2026The IEA reports data-centre electricity demand up about 17% in 2025
It was measured or witnessed, with the observation cited.
2026-02The second International AI Safety Report reports mixed labour findings
It happened, and the record is settled.
2026-07-27The deferral becomes law
It happened, and the record is settled.
2027-12-02 (statutory deadline)High-risk obligations under the AI Act become applicablea declared target, not a prediction
A programme target or declared plan. NEVER a prediction.